It's a scenario no one wants to see. Businesses may lose one-fourth of their employees. Schools and other facilities may shut down to avoid becoming hotbeds for disease. And the federal government has made it clear that Americans can't count on its services for solutions.

World health agencies are working to delay a global influenza pandemic, but one is likely to happen eventually, Idaho Department of Health and Welfare spokesman Tom Shanahan said.

When it does, the state of Idaho will be ready to respond, thanks to nearly $4 million the state has received from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Since April 2006, the department has passed out hundreds of millions of dollars for pandemic preparedness to all 50 states, the District of Columbia, three large metropolitan areas and territories including the U.S. Virgin Islands and American Samoa.

While Idaho, with its smaller population and national profile, received less money than most - the city of Chicago received more in national funds - the money has been well-spent, Shanahan said. The state should be able to respond quickly to a pandemic and, perhaps more important, stay open for business, something that may be difficult for government agencies and other vital businesses if their staffs are sick or caring for others.

The challenge lies in responding to a bug that would strike without warning and with great success. Like the three pandemics the world saw in the 20th century, the public would lack immunity to the virus, allowing it to spread easily and cause much more harm. So-called "bird flu," the avian influenza A virus labeled H5N1, is a likely candidate if it ever becomes able to infect humans more easily. But it's not the only possible disease.

"It could be something like SARS. It could spread very quickly," Shanahan said. "Any germ in the world's a plane ride away."

Idaho is better-prepared than it could be, Shanahan said, thanks in part to money distributed after the Sept. 11 attacks to improve emergency preparedness in general. That's good news, he said, given that U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told the department earlier this year not to expect his agency to be the state's savior.

"That's what this funding has been, for us and districts to develop infrastructure and planning," Shanahan said.

So far, the money's produced everything from vaccination drills at local districts to an online death certificate form - meant for timely reporting of deaths - and a statewide alert network already used for smaller cases such as this summer's cryptosporidiosis outbreak. The state has conducted local trainings for Rotary clubs and hospitals, and health districts are helping businesses plan for employees working from home and purchasing protective gear for emergency first responders.

Each of the state's seven health districts will get close to $300,000 of the money for their own use, and the South Central Public Health District has put much of its allotment toward communication. A current media campaign advises people how to avoid the flu, and the district has developed two Web sites with the money - one to post pandemic information for the public and one for health professionals to report diseases through.

The district has also spoken with civic groups and government leaders about dealing with the impact to businesses and has passed out gloves, masks and hand sanitizer to local police and firefighters, public health preparedness program manager Karyn Goodale said. Part of her advice to businesses is to train current employees in other duties.

"Have somebody else trained in how to do payroll," she said. "The government needs and has a responsibility to stay in business, even if a pandemic influenza should hit."

With another $529,000 recently announced for health care entities in the state to stockpile critical medical equipment, both Goodale and Shanahan said they think the state is in good hands, thanks to the focus on local response.

"I think we see that from (Hurricane) Katrina," Shanahan said. "We need to have local response because that's where it's going to come from."

Nate Poppino can be reached at 735-3237 or npoppino@magicvalley.com.